Uncertainty estimation for environmental models (including the GLUE methodology)

Papers are listed here that are known by Lancaster University to include the GLUE technique or have been written by authors associated with the NERC Long Term Grant scheme (Project no. NER/L/S/2001/00658). This therefore includes 3 sections, the first identifies papers with an author connection that was at Lancaster University (collaborating or member of staff), the second includes all other papers that do not have an author link with Lancaster but do use the GLUE technique. The final third section gives all papers published before 2002. The list does not include any papers in review or in submission.
No draft or in review papers are included in the list. If you have a GLUE paper and your paper isn't in this list or your know of one that should be then please let us know, thanks

GLUE papers with author connections at Lancaster

1. Smith, P., Beven, K.J., Dean, S., Freer, J.E., Gallart, F., Latron, J. and Williams, R. 2008. On the calculation of the spatial distribution of inflow to a river reach through the analysis of a tracer experiment with uncertainties. Hydrological Processes, in press.
2. Beven, K J, Smith, P J, and Freer, J E, 2007, Comment on "Hydrological Forecasting Uncertainty Assessment: Incohedrence of the GLUE methodology" by Peitro Mantovan and Ezio Todini, Journal of Hydrology, 338(3-4): 315-318.
3. Blazkova, S and Beven, K J, 2007, Uncertainty in Flood Estimation, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, doi: 10.1080/15732470701189514
4. Choi, H T and Beven, K J (2007) Multi-period and Multi-criteria Model Conditioning to Reduce Prediction Uncertainty in Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Modelling within GLUE framework, J. Hydrology, 332 (3-4): 316-336
5. Gallart, G, Latron, J, Llorens, P, Beven, K J, 2007, Using internal catchment information to reduce the uncertainty of discharge and baseflow prediction, Advances in Water Research, 30(4): 808-823.
6. Iorgulescu, I., K. J. Beven, and A. Musy, 2007, Flow, mixing, and displacement in using a data-based hydrochemical model to predict conservative tracer data, Water Resour. Res., 43, W03401, doi:10.1029/2005WR004019.
7. Krueger, T., Freer, J., Quinton, J.N. and Macleod, C.J.A., 2007. Processes affecting transfer of sediment and colloids, with associated phosphorus, from intensively farmed grasslands: a critical note on modelling of phosphorus transfers. Hydrological Processes, 21(4): 557-562.
8. Page, T., Beven, K. J., Freer, J. and Neal, C. 2007. Modelling the chloride signal at Plynlimon, Wales, using a modified dynamic TOPMODEL incorporating conservative chemical mixing (with uncertainty), Hydrological Processes, 21(3): 292-307.
9. Piñol, J, Castellnou, M and Beven, K J, 2007, Conditioning uncertainty in ecological models: assessing the impact of fire management strategies, Ecological Modelling, 207(1), 34-44.
10. Beven, K J, 2007, Working towards integrated environmental models of everywhere: uncertainty, data, and modelling as a learning process. Hydrology and Earth System Science, 11(1), 460-467.
11. Whyatt, JD; Metcalfe, SE; Nicholson, J; Derwent, RG; Page, T; Stedman, JR, Regional scale modelling of particulate matter in the UK, source attribution and an assessment of uncertainties, ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, 2007, 41(16), 3315-3327
12. Beven, KJ, 2006, A manifesto for the equifinality thesis, J. Hydrology, 320, 18-36.
13. Beven, KJ, 2006, The Holy Grail of Scientific Hydrology: as closure, HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 10 (5): 609-618.
14. Beven, KJ, 2006, Towards integrated environmental models of everywhere: uncertainty, data and modelling as a learning process . Hydrology and Earth System Science, 11 (1): 460-467 .
15. Beven, KJ, Page T and McGechan, M, 2006, Uncertainty estimation in phosphorus models, in D E Radcliffe and M L Cabrera (Eds), Modelling Phosphorus in the Environment, Taylor and Francis: Boca Raton, FL, 131-160.
16. Beven, KJ, Zhang, D, and Mermoud, A, 2006, On the value of local measurements on prediction of pesticide transport at the field scale. Vadoze Zone Journal, 5: 222-233.
17. Choi, HT and Beven, KJ, 2006. Multi-period and Multi-criteria Model Conditioning to Reduce Prediction Uncertainty in Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Modelling within GLUE framework, J. Hydrology, 332 (3-4): 316-336.
18. Iorgulescu, I., Beven K.J., Musy A., 2007. Flow, mixing, and displacement in using a data-based hydrochemical model to predict conservative tracer data. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 43 (3): Art. No. W03401.
19. Mo, X, Pappenberger, F, Beven, K J, Liu, S, de Roo, A and Lin, Z, 2006, Panoramic analysis of parameter conditioning and prediction uncertainties of the LISFLOOD-WB distributed hydrological model, Hydrological Sciences J., 51, 45-65.
20. Page, T., Beven, K.J. and Freer, J., 2006, Modelling the Chloride Signal at the Plynlimon Catchments, Wales Using a Modified Dynamic TOPMODEL. Hydrological Processes, 21 (3): 292-307 .
21. Pappenberger, F, Harvey, H, Beven K, Hall, J and Meadowcroft, I, 2006, Decision tree for choosing an uncertainty analysis methodology: a wiki experiment http://www.floodrisknet.org.uk/methods http://www.floodrisk.net, Hydrological Processes, 20, 3793-3798.
22. Pappenberger, F, Matgen, P, Beven, K J, Henry J-B, Pfister, L and de Fraipont, P, 2006, Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions, Advances in Water Resources, 29 (10): 1430-1449.
23. Pappenberger, F., Beven, K.J., Frodsham, K., Romanovicz, R. and Matgen, P., 2006. Grasping the unavoidable subjectivity in calibration of flood inundation models: a vulnerability weighted approach. Journal of Hydrology, 333, 275-287.
24. Pappenberger, F., Frodsham, K., Beven, K J, Romanovicz, R. and Matgen, P., 2006. Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 10,1-14.
25. Romanowicz, R, and Beven, K J, 2006, Comments on Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 91, 1315-1321
26. Smith, P. J., Beven, K J, Tawn, J, Blazkova, S and Merta, L, 2006, Discharge dependent pollutant dispersion in rivers: estimation of ADZ parameters with surrogate data. Water Resources Research, 42, W04412, doi:10.1029/2005WR004008.
27. Vigiak, O, Romanowicz, R J, van Loon, E E, Sterk, G and Beven, K J, 2006, A disaggregating approach to describe overland flow occurrence in a catchment, J. Hydrol., 323, 22-40.
28. Vigiak, O, Sterk, G, Romanowicz, R J and Beven, K J, 2006, A semi-empirical model to assess uncertainty of spatial patterns of erosion, Catena, 66 (3): 198-210
29. Zhang, D, Beven, KJ and Mermoud, A, 2006, A comparison of nonlinear least square and GLUE for model calibration and uncertainty estimation for pesticide transport in soils. Advances in Water Resources, 29 (12): 1924-1933.
30. Beven, K J, 2005, On the concept of model structural error, Water Science and Technology, 52(6), 165-175.
31. Iorgulescu, I, Beven, K J and Musy, A, 2005, Data-based modelling of runoff and chemical tracer concentrations in the Haute-Menthue (Switzerland) research catchment, Hydrological Processes, 19, 2557-2574.
32. Joerin, C, Beven, K J, Musy, A, and Balin Talamba, D, 2005, Study of hydrological processes by the combination of environmental tracing and hillslope measurements: application to the Haute-Menthue catchment, Hydrological Processes, 19, 3127-3145.
33. Mo, X, Beven, K J, Liu, S, Leslie, L M and De Roo, A P J, 2004, Long term water budget estimation with the modified distributed model LISFLOOD-WB over the Lushi basin, China, Meteorology and Applied Physics, 90(1-2), 1-16.
34. Pappenberger, F., Beven, K., Horritt, M., Blazkova, S., 2005, Uncertainty in the calibration of effective roughness parameters in HEC-RAS using inundation and downstream level observations, Journal of Hydrology, 302, 46-69.
35. Pappenberger, F., Beven, K.J., Hunter N., Gouweleeuw, B., Bates, P., de Roo, A., Thielen, J., 2005, Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS). Hydrology and Earth System Science, 9(4),381-393.
36. Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., Aronica, G. and Beven, K J, 2004, Bayesian updating of flood inundation likelihoods conditioned on flood extent data, Hydrological Processes, 18, 3347-3370.
37. Beven, K J, 2004, Reply to " The emergence of a new kind of relativism in environmental modeling: a commentary" by P. Baveye, Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 460: 2147-2151.
38. Blazkova, S and Beven, K J, 2004, Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation of subcatchment rainfalls and discharges with the aim of improving dam safety assessment in a large basin in the Czech Republic, J. Hydrology, 292, 153-172
39. Freer, J, McMillan, H, McDonnell, J J and Beven, K J, 2004, Constraining Dynamic TOPMODEL responses for imprecise water table information using fuzzy rule based performance measures, J. Hydrology., 291, 254-277
40. Mo, X. and Beven, K J, 2004, Multi-objective parameter conditioning of a three-source wheat canopy model, Agric. Forest. Met., 122, 39-63.
41. Page, T., Beven, K.J. and Whyatt, D. 2004. Predictive Capability in Estimating Changes in Water Quality: Long-Term Responses to Atmospheric Deposition. Water Soil and Air Pollution, 151, 215-244.
42. Page, T., Whyatt, D., Beven, K.J. and Metcalfe, S.E.: 2004. Uncertainty in Modelled Estimates of Acid Deposition across Wales: A GLUE Approach. Atmospheric Environment, 38(14), 2079-2090.
43. Pappenberger, F, Beven, K J, de Roo, A., Thielen, J., and Gouweleeuw, G, 2004, Uncertainty analysis of the rainfall runoff model LisFlood within the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), J. River Basin Management, 2, 123-133.
44. Payraudeau, S., Cernesson, F., M. G. Tournoud and K. J. Beven, 2004. Modelling nitrogen loads at the catchment scale under the influence of land use, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 29 (11-12), 811-819.
45. Piñol, J., K. J. Beven, & D.X. Viegas, 2004, Modelling the effect of fire-exclusion and prescribed fire on wildfire size in Mediterranean ecosystems. Ecological Modelling, 183, 397-409.
46. Romanowicz, R, and Beven, K J, 2004, Comments on GLUE, Proceedings, SAMO2004, Los Alamos, NM.
47. Beven, K J and Pappenberger, F, 2003, Discussion of "Towards the hydraulics of the hydroinformatics era" by M B Abbott et al., J. Hydraul. Res. 41(3), 331-336.
48. Beven, K J and Young, P C, 2003, Comment on Bayesian Recursive Parameter Estimation for Hydrologic Models by M Thiemann, M Trosset, H Gupta and S Sorooshian, Water Resources Research,3 9(5), doi: W01116, 10.1029/2001WR001183
49. Binley, A and Beven, K J, 2003, Vadose zone model uncertainty as conditioned on geophysical data, Ground Water, 41(2), 119-127.
50. Page, T, Beven, K J, Freer, J and Jenkins, A, 2003, Investigating the uncertainty in predicting responses to atmospheric deposition using the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, Water, Air, Soil Pollution, 142, 71-94.
51. Peters, N. E., Freer, J E and Beven, K J, 2003, Modelling hydrologic responses in a small forested catchment (Panola Mountain, Georgia, USA): a comparison of the original and a new dynamic TOPMODEL, Hydrological Processes, 17(2), 345-362
52. Romanowicz, R. and Beven, K. J., 2003, Bayesian estimation of flood inundation probabilities as conditioned on event inundation maps, Water Resources Research, 39(3), W01073, 10.1029/2001WR001056
53. Schulz, K., and Beven, K., 2003. Data-supported robust parameterisations in land surface - atmosphere flux predictions: towards a top-down approach, Hydrol. Process., 17, 2259-2277.
54. Beven, K J, 2002, Towards a coherent philosophy for environmental modelling, Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. A, 458, 2465-2484.
55. Beven, K. J., 2002, Towards an alternative blueprint for a physically-based digitally simulated hydrologic response modelling system, Hydrol. Process., 16(2), 189-206.
56. Beven, K. J., Musy, A. and Higy, C., 2002, Tribune Libre: L'unicité de lieu, d'action et de temps, Revue de Sciences de l'Eau, 14(4), 525-533.
57. Blazkova, S and Beven, K J, 2002, Flood Frequency Estimation by Continuous Simulation for a Catchment treated as Ungauged (with Uncertainty), Water Resources Research 38(8), 10.1029/2001WR000500.
58. Blazkova, S, Beven, K, Tacheci, P and Kulasova, A, 2002, Testing the distributed water table predictions of TOPMODEL (allowing for uncertainty in model calibration): the death of TOPMODEL?, Water Resources Research, 38(11), W01257, 10.1029/2001WR000912
59. Blazkova, S., Beven, K. J., and Kulasova, A., 2002, On constraining TOPMODEL hydrograph simulations using partial saturated area information, Hydrol. Process., 16(2), 441-458.
60. Hankin, B.G., Holland, M.J., Beven, K.J., Carling, P.A., 2002, Computational fluid dynamics modelling of flow and energy fluxes for a natural fluvial dead zone, Journal of Hydraulic Research, 40(4), 389-401.
61. Joerin, C., K. J. Beven, I. Iorgulescu, A. Musy, 2002, Uncertainty in hydrograph separations based on geochemical mixing models, J. Hydrology, 255, 90-106.
62. Kettle, H and Beven, K J, 2002, Fuzzy Rules Based Model for Solute Dispersion in an Open Channel Dead Zone, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 4(1), 39-51
63. Kettle, H, Hankin, B and Beven , K, 2002, Fuzzy Rule-based Model for Contaminant Transport in a Natural River Channel, Journal of Hydroinformatics, 4(1), 53-62.
64. Martínez-Vilalta, J, Piñol, J and Beven, K J, 2002, A hydraulic model to predict drought-induced mortality in woody plants: an application to climate change in the Mediterranean, Ecological Modelling, 155, 127-147, 2002.

Book Chapters and refereed Conference papers
65. Beven, K J, Page T and McGechan, M, 2006, Uncertainty estimation in phosphorus models, in D E Radcliffe and M L Cabrera (Eds), Modelling Phosphorus in the Environment, Taylor and Francis: Boca Raton, FL, 131-160.
66. Wagener, T, Freer, J, Zehe, E, Beven, K, Gupta, H V and Bardossy, A, 2006, Towards an uncertainty framework for predictions in ungauged basins: the uncertainty working group, IAHS Publication, 303, 454-462
67. Beven, K J, 2004, Uncertainty in environmental modeling: a manifesto for the equifinality thesis, in T J Nicholson et al. (Eds.), Proceedings of the International Workshop on Uncertainty, Sensitivity, and Parameter Estimation for Multimedia Environmental Modeling. Report NUREG CP/0187: Washington DC, 103-105.
68. Romanowicz R. J., P. C. Young and K. J. Beven, 2004, Assessing Uncertainty in Assessing Flood Risk, Proceedings of First International Conference on Flood Risk Assessment, Bath, U.K., 2004, 127-138.
69. Freer, J. E., K. J. Beven, and N. E. Peters. 2003, Multivariate seasonal period model rejection within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation procedure. in Calibration of Watershed Models, edited by Q. Duan, H. Gupta, S. Sorooshian, A. N. Rousseau, and R. Turcotte, AGU Books, Washington, 69-87.
70. Beven, K J, 2002, Accuracy, uncertainty and a coherent philosophy for environmental modelling, in G Hunter and K Lowell (Eds), Proceedings of the Accuracy 2002 Symposium, RMIT, Melbourne, Australia, 1-8 (ISBN 0 7340 22123).
71. Beven, K J, 2002, Uncertainty and the detection of structural change in models of environmental systems, in M B Beck (Ed.), Environmental Foresight and Models: A Manifesto, Elsevier Science, New York. 227-250.

Invited Commentaries and Comments
72. F. Pappenberger, H. Harvey, K. Beven, J. Hall, 2007,, Uncertainty Analysis in Environmental Modeling Made Easy, EoS Trans. AGU, 88(3) p26, doi:10.1029/2007EO030003
73. Beven, K J, 2006, On undermining the science?, Hydrological Processes (HPToday), 20, 3141-3146.
74. Pappenberger, F and Beven, K J, 2006, Ignorance is bliss: 7 reasons not to use uncertainty analysis, Water Resources Research, 42, W05302, doi:10.1029/2005WR004820, 2006
75. Beven, K J, 2004, Does an interagency meeting near Washington imply uncertainty?, Hydrological Processes (HPToday), 18(9), 1747-1750.
76. Beven, K J, 2003, On environmental models of everywhere using the GRID, Hydrological Processes (HPToday), 17, 171-174.

Comments and Reviews
77. Beven, K J, Smith, P J, and Freer, J E, 2007, Comment on "Hydrological Forecasting Uncertainty Assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology" by Peitro Mantovan and Ezio Todini, J. Hydrology, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.02.023
78. Gupta, H V, Beven, K J and Wagener, T, 2005, Model calibration and uncertainty estimation, Part 11 Section 131 in Volume 3, Encyclopaedia of Hydrological Sciences, Wiley, Chichester, 2015-2032.

GLUE papers with external author connections

1. Arabi, M; Govindaraju, RS; Hantush, MM, 2007. A probabilistic approach for analysis of uncertainty in the evaluation of watershed management practices, JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2007, 333(2-4),459-471.
2. Cameron, D, 2007. Flow, frequency, and uncertainty estimation for an extreme historical flood event in the Highlands of Scotland, UK, HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 2007, 21(11),1460-1470.
3. Ewen, J; O'Donnell, G; Burton, A; O'Connell, E, 2007. Errors and uncertainty in physically-based rainfall-runoff modelling of catchment change effects, JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2006, 330(3-4), 641-650.
4. Martinez-Carreras, N; Soler, M; Hernandez, E; Gallart, F, 2007. Simulating badland erosion with KINEROS2 in a small Mediterranean mountain basin (Vallcebre, Eastern Pyrenees), CATENA,2007,71(1), 145-154.
5. Matgen, P; El Idrissi, A; Henry, JB; Tholey, N; Hoffmann, L; de Fraipont, P; Pfister, L, 2007. Patterns of remotely sensed floodplain saturation and its use in runoff predictions, HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 2006, 20(8), 1805-1825.
6. McMichael, CE; Hope, AS, 2007. Predicting streamflow response to fire-induced landcover change: Implications of parameter uncertainty in the MIKE SHE model, JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, 2007, 84(3), 245-256.
7. Mugunthan, P; Shoemaker, CA, 2007. Assessing the impacts of parameter uncertainty for computationally expensive groundwater models, WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2006, 42(10), W10428.
8. Picard G, Woodward FI, Lomas MR, Pellenq J, Quegan S, Kennedy M, 2007. Constraining the Sheffield dynamic global vegetation model using stream-flow measurements in the United Kingdom, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 11 (12): 2196-2210 DEC 2005.
9. Pohlert, T; Huisman, JA; Breuer, L; Frede, HG, 2007. Integration of a detailed biogeochemical model into SWAT for improved nitrogen predictions - Model development, sensitivity, and GLUE analysis, ECOLOGICAL MODELLING, 2007,203(3-4),215-228.
10. Zheng, Y; Keller, AA, 2007. Uncertainty assessment in watershed-scale water quality modeling and management: 1. Framework and application of generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach, WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 43(8), W08407.
11. Zheng, Y; Keller, AA, 2007. Uncertainty assessment in watershed-scale water quality modeling and management: 2. Management objectives constrained analysis of uncertainty (MOCAU)WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2007, 43(8), W08408.
12. Borga, M; Degli Esposti, S; Norbiato, D., 2006. Influence of errors in radar rainfall estimates on hydrological modeling prediction uncertainty WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 42(8) W08409
13. Cameron, D., 2006. An application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios to flood estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged catchment in the northeast of Scotland, UK (with uncertainty) JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 328: 212-226
14. Heidari, A; Saghafian, B; Maknoon, R, 2006. Assessment of flood forecasting lead time based on generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation approach STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 20(5): 363-380
15. Heywood, E; Whyatt, JD; Hall, J; Wadsworth, R; Page, T., 2006. Presentation of the influence of deposition uncertainties on acidity critical load exceedance across Wales ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY 9(1): 32-45
16. Huang, JC; Kao, SJ; Hsu, ML; Lin, JC, 2006. Stochastic procedure to extract and to integrate landslide susceptibility maps: an example of mountainous watershed in Taiwan NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 803-815
17. Kim, K; Kalita, PK; Bowes, MJ; Eheart, JW., 2006. Modeling of river dynamics of phosphorus under unsteady flow conditions WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 42(7) W07413
18. McMichael, CE; Hope, AS; Loaiciga, HA, 2006. Distributed hydrological modelling in California semi-arid shrublands: MIKE SHE model calibration and uncertainty estimation JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 317(3-4): 307-324
19. Rankinen, K; Karvonen, T; Butterfield, D., 2006. An application of the GLUE methodology for estimating the parameters of the INCA-N model SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 365: 123139
20. Ruessink, BG, 2006. A Bayesian estimation of parameter-induced uncertainty in a nearshore alongshore current model JOURNAL OF HYDROINFORMATICS 8(1): 37-49
21. Wang, X; Frankenberger, JR; Kladivko, EJ, 2006. Uncertainties in DRAINMOD predictions of subsurface drain flow for an Indiana silt loam using the GLUE methodology HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 3069-3084
22. Willgoose, GR; Sharmeen, S A., 2006. One-dimensional model for simulating armouring and erosion on hillslopes: I. Model development and event-scale dynamics EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS 31(8): 970-991
23. Winsemius, HC; Savenije, HHG; Gerrits, AMJ; Zapreeva, EA; Klees, 2006. Comparison of two model approaches in the Zambezi river basin with regard to model reliability and identifiability HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 10(3): 339-352
24. Aronica, G; Freni, G; Oliveri, E, 2005. Uncertainty analysis of the influence of rainfall time resolution in the modelling of urban drainage systems HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 19(5): 1055-1071
25. Candela, A; Noto, LV; Aronica, G, 2005. Influence of surface roughness in hydrological response of semiarid catchments JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 13(3-4): 119-131
26. Hansson, K; Lundin, LC, 2005. Equifinality and sensitivity in freezing and thawing simulations of laboratory and in situ data COLD REGIONS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 44(1): 20-37
27. Hossain, F; Anagnostou, EN, 2005. Assessment of a probabilistic scheme for flood prediction JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING 2005 10 2 141 150
28. Hossain, F; Anagnostou, EN, 2005. Assessment of a stochastic interpolation based parameter sampling scheme for efficient uncertainty analyses of hydrologic models COMPUTERS & GEOSCIENCES 1 4: 497-512
29. Hossain, F; Anagnostou, EN, 2005. Numerical investigation of the impact of uncertainties in satellite rainfall estimation and land surface model parameters on simulation of soil moisture ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES 28(12): 1336-1350
30. Hunter, NM; Bates, PD; Horritt, MS; De Roo, PJ; Werner, MGF, 2005. Utility of different data types for calibrating flood inundation models within a GLUE framework HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 9(4): Sp. Iss. SI 412-430
31. Larsbo, M; Jarvis, N, 2005. Simulating solute transport in a structured field soil: Uncertainty in parameter identification and predictions JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY 34(2): 621-634
32. Larsbo, M; Roulier, S; Stenemo, F; Kasteel, R; Jarvis, N, 2005. An improved dual-permeability model of water flow and solute transport in the vadose zone VADOSE ZONE JOURNAL 4(2): 398-406
33. McCabe, MF; Kalma, JD; Franks, SW, 2005. Spatial and temporal patterns of land surface fluxes from remotely sensed surface temperatures within an uncertainty modelling framework HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 9(5): 467-480
34. Minasny, B; Field, DJ, 2005. Estimating soil hydraulic properties and their uncertainty: the use of stochastic simulation in the inverse modelling of the evaporation method GEODERMA 126(3-4) 277-290
35. Muleta, MK; Nicklow, JW, 2005. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis coupled with automatic calibration for a distributed watershed model JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 306(1-4): 127-145
36. Tadesse, A; Anagnostou, EN, 2005. A statistical approach to ground radar-rainfall estimation JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC TECHNOLOGY, 22(11) 1720-1732
37. Uhlenbrook, S; Sieber, A, 2005. On the value of experimental data to reduce the prediction uncertainty of a process-oriented catchment model ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 20(1): 19-32
38. Werner, M; Blazkova, S; Petr, J, 2005. Spatially distributed observations in constraining inundation modelling uncertainties HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 19(16): 3081-3096
39. Werner, MGF; Hunter, NM; Bates, PD, 2005. Identifiability of distributed floodplain roughness values in flood extent estimation JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 314(1-4): 139-157
40. Hossain, F; Anagnostou, EN; Dinku, T; Borga, M, 2004. Hydrological model sensitivity to parameter and radar rainfall estimation uncertainty HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 18(17): 3277-3291
41. Hossain, F; Anagnostou, EN; Lee, KH, 2004. A non-linear and stochastic response surface method for Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in soil moisture simulation from a land surface model NONLINEAR PROCESSES IN GEOPHYSICS 11(4): 427-440
42. Mertens, J; Madsen, H; Feyen, L; Jacques, D; Feyen, J, 2004. Including prior information in the estimation of effective soil parameters in unsaturated zone modelling JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 294(4): 251-269
43. Khu, ST; Werner, MGF, 2003. Reduction of Monte-Carlo simulation runs for uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 7(5): 680-692
44. Morse, BS; Pohll, G; Huntington, J; Castillo, RR, 2003. Stochastic capture zone analysis of an arsenic-contaminated well using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimator (GLUE) methodology WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 39: 1151
45. Puech, C; Gineste, P, 2003. Radar imagery and saturated areas: decreasing model equifinality CANADIAN JOURNAL OF REMOTE SENSING 29(6): 729-733
46. Aronica, G; Bates, PD; Horritt, MS, 2002. Assessing the uncertainty in distributed model predictions using observed binary pattern information within GLUE HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 16(10): 2001-2016
47. Christiaens, K; Feyen, J, 2002. Constraining soil hydraulic parameter and output uncertainty of the distributed hydrological MIKE SHE model using the GLUE framework HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 16(2): 373-391
48. Engeland, K; Gottschalk, L, 2002. Bayesian estimation of parameters in a regional hydrological model HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 6(5): 883-898
49. Makowski, D; Wallach, D; Tremblay, M, 2002. Using a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation; comparison of the GLUE and MCMC methods AGRONOMIE 22(2) Sp. Iss. SI 191-203
50. Ratto, M; Tarantola, S; Saltelli, A, 2001. Sensitivity analysis in model calibration: GSA-GLUE approach COMPUTER PHYSICS COMMUNICATIONS 136(3): 212-224.

Critical discussions
51. Mantovan, P and Todini, E, 2007. Hydrological Forecasting Uncertainty Assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrology, 330 (1-2): 368-381.
52. Mantovan, P; Todini, E; Martina, MLV, 2007. Reply to comment by Keith Beven, Paul Smith and Jim Freer on "Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology", JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2007, 338(3-4), 319-324.
53. Todini, E; Mantovan, P, 2007. Comment on: 'On undermining the science?' by Keith Beven, HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 2007,21(12), 1633-1638.
54. Ebel, BA; Loague, K, 2006. Physics-based hydrologic-response simulation: Seeing through the fog of equifinality HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 2006 2887 2900
55. Montanari, A, 2005, Large sample behaviors of GLUE in assessing the uncertainty ofrainfall-runoff simulations, Water Resour. Res.
56. Montanari, A and Brath, A, 2004. A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations, Water Resources Research, 40, W01106, 10.1029/2003WR002540, 2004
57. Christiansen, S, 2003. A synthetic groundwater modelling study of the accuracy of GLUE uncertainty intervals, Nordic Hydrology, 35, 45-59, 2003.

58. Wagener, T and Gupta, H V, 2005. Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty, 2005, Stoch. Env. Res. Risk. Assess., DOI 10.1007/s00477-005-0006-5

pre-2002 GLUE papers - general list

1. Beven, K J and Freer, J, 2001. Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems, J. Hydrology, 249, 11-29.
2. Beven, K J, 2001. Calibration, Validation and Equifinality in Hydrological Modelling, Anderson, M G and Bates, P D (Eds), Model Validation: Perspectives in Hydrological Science, Wiley, Chichester, 43-55.
3. Beven, K J, 2001. Dalton Medal Lecture: How far can we go in distributed hydrological modelling?, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 5(1), 1-12.
4. Beven, K J, 2000. Uniqueness of place and process representations in hydrological modelling, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 4(2), 203-213.
5. Beven, K J, Freer J, Hankin, B and Schulz, K, 2000. The use of generalised likelihood measures for uncertainty estimation in high order models of environmental systems. in Nonlinear and Nonstationary Signal Processing, W J Fitzgerald, R L Smith, A T Walden and P C Young (Eds). CUP, 115-151.
6. Beven, K.J., 1996. Equifinality and Uncertainty in Geomorphological Modelling, in B L Rhoads and C E Thorn (Eds.), The Scientific Nature of Geomorphology, Wiley, Chichhester, 289-313.
7. Beven, K.J., 1993. Prophecy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling, Adv. in Water Resourc., 16, 41-51.
8. Beven, K.J. and A.M. Binley, 1992. The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrological Processes, 6, 279-298.

pre-2002 GLUE papers - Rainfall-runoff modelling
9. Beven, K J and Freer, J, 2001. A Dynamic TOPMODEL, Hydrol. Process.,15(10), 1993-2011.
10. Franks, S W, Gineste, Ph, Beven, K J and Merot, Ph, 1998. On constraining the predictions of a distributed model: the incorporation of fuzzy estimates of saturated areas into the calibration process, Water Resources Research, 34, 787-797.
11. Lamb, R., Beven, K.J. and Myrabø, S., 1998. Use of spatially distributed water table observations to constrain uncertainty in a rainfall-runoff model., Advances in Water Resources, 22(4), 305-317.
12. Pinol, J, Beven, K J and Freer, J, 1997. Modelling the hydrological response of mediterranean catchments, Prades, Catalonia - the use of distributed models as aids to hypothesis formulation, Hydrol. Process., 11(9), 1287-1306
13. Beven, K.J. and J.I. Fisher, 1996. Remote sensing and scaling in hydrology, in J. B. Stewart et al. (Eds), Scaling Issues in Hydrology, Wiley, Chichester
14. Fisher J.I. and K.J. Beven, 1996. Modelling of streamflow at Slapton Wood using TOPMODEL within an uncertainty estimation framework, Field Studies, 8, 577-584.
15. Freer, J., K.J. Beven and B. Ambroise, 1996. Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in runoff prediction and the value of data: an application of the GLUE approach, Water Resources Research, 32(7), 2161-2173.

pre-2002 GLUE papers - Rainfall Modelling
16. Cameron, D, Beven, K J, and Tawn, J, 2001. Modelling extreme rainfalls using a modified random pulse Bartlett-Lewis stochastic rainfall model (with uncertainty), Adv. Water Resour., 24, 203-211

pre-2002 GLUE papers - Flood frequency estimation
17. Cameron, D, Beven, K J, Tawn, J, and Naden, P, 2000. Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation (with likelihood based uncertainty estimation), Hydrology and Earth System Science, 4(1), 23-34.
18. Cameron, D., Beven, K. and Naden, P., 2000. Flood frequency estimation under climate change (with uncertainty). Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 4(3), 393-405
19. Cameron, D, Beven, K J, Tawn, J, Blazkova, S and Naden, P, 1999. Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged upland catchment (with uncertainty), J. Hydrology, 219, 169-187.

pre-2002 GLUE papers - Recharge, Groundwater and Capture Zone Modelling
20. Feyen, L, Beven, K J, De Smedt, F. and Freer, J, 2001. Stochastic capture zones delineated within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation methodology: conditioning on head observations, Water Resourc. Res., 37(3), 625-638.
21. Buckley, K.M., A.M. Binley and K.J. Beven, 1995. Calibration and predictive uncertainty estimation of groundwater quality models: application to Twin Lake Tracer Test in Proc of Groundwater Quality Models 93, Tallin, Estonia, IAHS Pubn. 220, 205-214.
22. Jenkins, K.J., L.G. Watts, A.M. Binley and K.J. Beven, 1995. A Framework for investigating predictive uncertainty in the modelling of groundwater contamination, Acta Universitatis Carolina & Geologica, 39, 149-160.

pre-2002 GLUE papers - Hydraulic and Flood inundation modelling
23. Hankin, B. G., Hardy, R., Kettle, H. and Beven, K. J., 2001. Using CFD in a GLUE framework to model the flow and dispersion characteristics of a natural fluvial dead zone, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 26(6), 667-688.
24. Beven, K. J., Romanowicz, R., and Hankin, B., 2000. Mapping the probability of flood inundation (even in real time), in M. Lees and P. Walsh (Eds.), BHS Occasional Publication No. 12, 56-63, Wallingford.
25. Aronica, G, Hankin, B.G., Beven, K.J., 1998. Uncertainty and equifinality in calibrating distributed roughness coefficients in a flood propagation model with limited data, Advances in Water Resources, 22(4), 349-365.
26. Romanowicz, R and Beven, K J, 1998. Dynamic real-time prediction of flood inundation probabilities, Hydrol. Sci. J., 43(2), 181-196.
27. Romanowicz, R., K.J. Beven and J. Tawn, 1996. Bayesian calibration of flood inundation models, in M.G. Anderson, D.E.Walling and P. D. Bates, (Eds.) Floodplain Processes, 333-360

pre-2002 GLUE papers - Modelling dispersion in channels
28. Hankin, B and Beven, K J, 1998. Modelling dispersion in complex open channel flows: 1. Equifinality of model structure, Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics., 12(6), 377-396.
29. Hankin, B and Beven, K J, 1998. Modelling dispersion in complex open channel flows: 2. Fuzzy calibration, Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics., 12(6), 397-412.

pre-2002 GLUE papers - Land surface to atmosphere flux modelling
30. Schulz, K. Jarvis, A, Beven, K J and Søgaard, H, 2001. The predictive uncertainty of land surface fluxes in response to increasing ambient CO2, J. Climate, 14(12), 2551-2562.
31. Beven, K J and Franks, S W, 1999. Functional similarity in landscape scale SVAT modelling, Hydrology and Earth Systems Science, 3(1), 85-94.
32. Franks, S W and Beven, K J, 1999. Conditioning a multiple patch SVAT model using uncertain time-space estimates of latent heat fluxes as inferred from remotely-sensed data, Water Resour. Res., 35(9), 2751-2761.
33. Franks, S W, Beven, K J and Gash, J H C, 1999. Multi-objective conditioning of a simple SVAT model. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 3(4), 477-489.
34. Franks, S and Beven, K, 1997. Bayesian estimation of uncertainty in land surface-atmosphere flux predictions, J. Geophysical Research, 102 (D20), 23991-23999.
35. Franks, S., K.J. Beven, P.F. Quinn and I. Wright, 1997. On the sensitivity of soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) schemes: equifinality and the problem of robust calibration, Agric. Forest Meteorol., 86, 63-75.

pre-2002 GLUE papers - Modelling soil geochemistry
36. Schulz, K, Beven, K and Huwe, B, 1999. Equifinality and the problem of robust calibration in nitrogen budget simulations, Soil Sci. Soc. Amer. J., 63(6), 1934-1941.
37. Zak, S and Beven, K J, 1999. Equifinality, sensitivity and uncertainty in the estimation of critical loads, Science of the Total Environment, 236, 191-214
38. Zak, S. K., K.J. Beven and B. Reynolds, 1997. Uncertainty in the estimation of critical loads: a practical methodology, Soil, Water and Air Pollution, 98, 297-316.

pre-2002 GLUE papers - Modelling soil erosion
39. Brazier, R E, Beven, K J, Anthony. S G and Rowan, J S, 2001. Implications of model uncertainty for the mapping of hillslope-scale soil erosion predictions, Earth Surf. Process. Landf., 26, 1333-1352.
40. Brazier, R. E., Beven, K. J., Freer, J. and Rowan, J. S., 2000. Equifinality and uncertainty in physically-based soil erosion models: application of the GLUE methodology to WEPP, the Water Erosion Prediction Project – for sites in the UK and USA, Earth Surf.

Process. Landf., 25, 825-845.

pre-2002 GLUE papers - Modelling atmospheric deposition
41. Page, T., Beven, K. J. and Whyatt, D., 2000. Predictive capability in estimating changes in water quality: long-term responses to atmospheric deposition, Proc. BHS Seventh National Meeting, British Hydrological Society, 3.65-3.73

Contact: Keith Beven