A workshop organized by the International Working Group on Uncertainty Analysis in Hydrologic Modeling as part of
the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) initiative. Further
information regarding the working group can be found under
www.hwr.arizona.edu/uncertainty. More information on the International Association of
Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) can be found by following the link.
To bring together a heterogeneous group of experts and users of uncertainty analysis techniques in environmental
modeling to discuss the current state, limitations and potential future avenues in this area. This will be a pure
‘work’-shop focussing on discussions in small groups with only a very limited number of presentations. These
presentations will not be keynotes, but short introductions into the topic of discussion based on results from a
pre-workshop experiment. Participants are also encouraged to bring posters outlining methodologies or discussing
theoretical issues.
The workshop format will address three research questions within three fundamental research themes, these are detailed
under the Workshop Focus section
**NEW** POST WORKSHOP INFORMATION
The workshop was a great success!, many topics were discussed and some interesting science points identified. There is
now a plan for the following information to be added to these web pages in the next few weeks (note new menu buttons
will be added as well). It should also be noted that a number of the current menu choices will be moved to an 'old pages'
menu to reorganise the post workshop information.
A list of participants of the workshop - when linked see here
For each of the main science topics for each day of the workshop
a summary of the individual group discussions will be written up - when linked see here
A set of downloadable science posters that were presented by delegates at the workshop - when linked see here
A set of presentations presented at the workshop by the guest speakers - when linked see here
For a considerable number of uncertainty analysis methods some basic information has been provided by the main
authors and are presented in poster formats - when linked see here
Participation, results, time scales and potential publication options from the HUGE experiments will
be fully reported to the science community - when linked see here
A forum to continue to discuss the science questions raised at this workshop - when linked see here
LEVELS OF PARTICIPATION
The participation in the workshop is by invitation only, due to the limited number of places
available. It is therefore very important that you respond indicate as soon as possible whether you want to participate
or not!
Participants who developed a technique for uncertainty estimation (batch or recursive) are invited to
bring a Poster exlaining their methodology and its underlying philosophy. Posters with conceptual discussions are also
welcome.
A pre-workshop Experiment where a variety of uncertainty methods will be applied to a common model and
dataset will be performed. A simple model and a data set including estimates of measurement error on the data will be
provided to the participants and they will be asked to run their algorithm to estimate parameters and make predictions
under uncertainty. Please e-mail Thorsten Wagener (thorsten@hwr.arizona.edu) if you want to participate in it.
It is NOT required that you participate in the experiment in order to participate in the workshop!
