e-mail: p.j.smith(at)lancaster.ac.uk
tel: 01524 593563
Room: A532, Environmental Science Department
Current Position
PhD Student (started 1st October 2002) NERC funded project entitled
Uncertainty in Environmental Modelling, (Grant number NER/L/2001/00658
2002-2007) - Prelimanary title “Likelihood Measures for Environmental Modelling”
Educational Qualifications
1995 – 1998: BSc(Hons), Environmental Mathematics, Lancaster University
1998 – 1999: Postgraduate Diploma, The mathematics of Non-linear systems,
University of Edinburgh
Research Interests
Likelihood measures used in rainfall-runoff modelling
The explicit representation of observational errors
Interval based representations of uncertainty
Bayesian Inference
Sampling algorithms for high dimensional complex response surfaces
(posterior distributions)
Academic and Professional Posts
Selected Publications and Presentations
Peer Reviewed Papers
Smith, P.J.; Beven, K.J.; Tawn, J.; Blazkova, S.; Merta, L. Discharge
dependent pollution dispersion in rivers: estimation of ADZ parameters with
surrogate data. Water Resourses Research, In Review
Presentations
Smith, P.J.; Beven, K.J. The use of Bounded Intervals for Data
Representation in the Evaluation of Uncertainties in Rainfall-Runoff Modelling.
Abstract Number EGU05-A-03667, European Geosciences Union, General Assembly
2005, Vienna, Austria, 24 - 29 April 2005.
pdf
Smith, P.J.; Beven, K.J.; Freer, J.; Peters, N.E. The use of Bounded
Intervals for Data Representation in the Evaluation of Uncertainties in
Rainfall-Runoff Modelling. Abstract Number H13B-0403, American Geophysical
Union, FallMeeting 2004, San Fransico, USA, 13 - 19 December 2004.
pdf
You may though prefer to look at the simpler poster presented at EGU 2005
Smith, P.J.; Beven, K.J.; Tawn, J. Evaluation of Rainfall-Runoff
Models: The effect of random input errors on output likelihood measures.
Abstract Number EGU04-A-04271, European Geosciences Union, General Assembly
2004, Nice, France, 25 - 30 April 2004.
pdf
Smith, P.J.; Beven, K.J.; Blazkova, S.; Merta, L. Constraining
uncertainty in the prediction of pollutant transport in rivers allowing for
measurement error. Abstract Number EAE03-A-10764, European Geophysical
Society, American Geophysical Union, European Union of Geosciences Joint
Assembly, Nice, France, 6 - 11 April 2003.
pdf
Other Interests
The countryside, particularly mountains and moors, and being active in it.
